The winless Chicago Bears have the best chance to pick No. 1 overall in the 2024 NFL draft, according to projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). They are actually projected to have the first two picks in the draft, having received the Carolina Panthers’ selection in an offseason trade that gave the Panthers the first pick in the 2023 NFL draft. The Bears are then followed by the New York Giants.
There are already three trades involving first-round picks for next April’s draft. The Houston Texans own the Cleveland Browns’ pick, while the Bears and Arizona Cardinals are in line to have two selections in Round 1. The 2024 pick the Green Bay Packers received from the New York Jets’ offseason trade of Aaron Rodgers will be a 2024 second-round selection, not a first-rounder. That’s because Rodgers — who is out with a torn Achilles — will not play 65% of the snaps this season.
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games and each team’s average draft position in the simulations.
Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2024 NFL draft (updated Oct. 3):
Average draft position: 4.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 26.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 73.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.5%
Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 25.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 72.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92%
Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 61.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 87.8%
Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 52.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.6%
Average draft position: 6.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 52.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 82.3%
Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 41.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 74.6%
Average draft position: 10.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 21.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.3%
Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 46.5%
Average draft position: 12.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 41.4%
Average draft position: 12.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 14.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 42.1%
Average draft position: 13.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 36.2%
Average draft position: 13.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 35.2%
Average draft position: 14.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 9.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 31.2%
Average draft position: 15.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28%
Average draft position: 15.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 26%
Average draft position: 16.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 22.5%
Average draft position: 16.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 6.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.8%
Average draft position: 16.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 7.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.8%
Average draft position: 17.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 4.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17.4%
Average draft position: 17.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 15.3%
Average draft position: 17.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 14.9%
Average draft position: 19.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 11.4%
Average draft position: 20.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.9%
Average draft position: 20.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.8%
Average draft position: 23.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.4%
Average draft position: 25.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%
Average draft position: 26.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%
Average draft position: 26.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%
Average draft position: 26.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.6%
Average draft position: 26.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
Average draft position: 28.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%
Average draft position: 28.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: less than 0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: less than 0.1%
Source: ESPN
