Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP — fantasy points over replacement player — is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Tight end adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher’s expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver’s expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver’s expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2023 xFP leaderboard for tight ends:
xFP & xTD leaderboards
xFP by position: QB | RB | WR | https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/insider/story/_/id/38333091/fantasy-football-2023-expected-fantasy-points-xfp-leaderboard-tes”>TE
Defense xFP: By position
xTD: 2023 leaderboard
2023 xFP: Tight Ends (incl. adjusted stats)
Rk. Player
xFP
Actual
FORP
G
Rec
Yds
TD
1. T.J. Hockenson, MIN
31
37
6
2
13
113
1
2. Jake Ferguson, DAL
29
13
-16
2
8
63
2
3. Zach Ertz, ARI
29
20
-9
2
12
124
1
4. Hunter Henry, NE
26
34
8
2
8
105
1
5. Darren Waller, NYG
20
20
0
2
9
103
0
6. Logan Thomas, WAS
20
19
-1
2
7
74
1
7. Cole Kmet, CHI
20
17
-3
2
8
75
1
8. Dawson Knox, BUF
20
16
-4
2
7
56
1
9. Travis Kelce, KC
20
13
-7
1
6
64
1
10. Dalton Schultz, HOU
19
10
-10
2
8
77
1
11. Evan Engram, JAC
19
22
2
2
10
84
0
12. Cade Otton, TB
19
14
-5
2
8
71
1
13. Hayden Hurst, CAR
19
20
2
2
8
76
0
14. Kylen Granson, IND
18
19
0
2
7
72
1
15. Durham Smythe, MIA
18
13
-5
2
7
74
1
16. Dalton Kincaid, BUF
17
16
-1
2
7
61
1
17. Irv Smith Jr., CIN
17
8
-9
2
7
61
0
18. Sam LaPorta, DET
17
20
4
2
8
71
0
19. Kyle Pitts, ATL
17
10
-7
2
5
71
1
20. Pat Freiermuth, PIT
16
9
-7
2
4
34
1
21. George Kittle, SF
16
11
-5
2
7
59
0
22. Tyler Higbee, LAR
15
12
-3
2
7
69
0
23. Mark Andrews, BAL
14
16
1
1
6
55
0
24. Jonnu Smith, ATL
14
9
-6
2
4
47
1
25. Donald Parham, LAC
14
13
-1
2
3
38
1
26. Mike Gesicki, NE
13
15
1
2
6
67
0
27. David Njoku, CLE
13
11
-2
2
6
64
0
28. Adam Trautman, DEN
13
8
-5
2
5
36
1
29. Luke Musgrave, GB
12
13
1
2
4
61
0
30. Noah Gray, KC
12
13
1
2
6
55
0
31. Dallas Goedert, PHI
12
8
-4
2
6
55
0
32. Juwan Johnson, NO
12
10
-2
2
5
55
0
33. Tyler Conklin, NYJ
10
11
1
2
5
44
0
34. Gerald Everett, LAC
10
12
2
2
4
40
0
35. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN
9
8
-2
2
4
46
0
36. Connor Heyward, PIT
9
4
-5
2
2
37
0
37. Josh Oliver, MIN
8
10
1
2
5
32
0
38. Peyton Hendershot, DAL
8
0
-8
2
1
12
0
39. Blake Bell, KC
7
9
2
2
2
19
0
40. Cole Turner, WAS
7
7
0
2
3
33
0
41. Will Dissly, SEA
7
10
3
2
4
28
0
42. Trey McBride, ARI
7
10
3
2
3
34
0
43. Colby Parkinson, SEA
7
8
1
2
3
29
0
44. John Bates, WAS
6
8
1
2
3
32
0
45. Noah Fant, SEA
6
10
4
2
2
33
0
46. Harrison Bryant, CLE
6
9
3
2
2
10
0
47. Austin Hooper, LV
5
7
2
2
2
26
0
48. Ko Kieft, TB
5
0
-5
2
1
24
0
49. Mo Alie-Cox, IND
5
3
-2
2
2
25
0
50. Luke Schoonmaker, DAL
5
7
3
2
1
5
1
51. Foster Moreau, NO
4
4
0
2
2
20
0
52. Brevin Jordan, HOU
3
5
1
2
1
19
0
53. Andrew Ogletree, IND
3
3
0
1
1
20
0
54. Will Mallory, IND
3
7
4
1
1
18
0
55. Greg Dulcich, DEN
3
4
1
1
1
16
0
56. Robert Tonyan, CHI
3
0
-3
2
1
17
0
57. Josiah Deguara, GB
3
3
0
2
2
11
0
58. Isaiah Likely, BAL
3
3
0
2
2
12
0
59. Brycen Hopkins, LAR
3
3
0
2
1
14
0
60. Brock Wright, DET
3
4
1
2
2
11
0
61. David Wells, TB
3
1
-2
2
2
9
0
62. Lawrence Cager, NYG
3
4
1
1
2
10
0
63. Jordan Akins, CLE
3
3
1
2
2
7
0
64. Stone Smartt, LAC
2
3
1
2
1
14
0
65. Charlie Kolar, BAL
2
0
-2
1
1
9
0
66. Trevon Wesco, TEN
1
0
-1
2
1
6
0
67. Teagan Quitoriano, HOU
1
2
1
2
1
5
0
68. Michael Mayer, LV
1
1
0
2
1
5
0
69. Daniel Bellinger, NYG
1
1
0
2
1
5
0
70. Giovanni Ricci, CAR
1
1
0
2
1
4
0
71. Jimmy Graham, NO
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
72. Ben Sims, GB
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
73. C.J. Uzomah, NYJ
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
74. Pharaoh Brown, NE
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
75. Ian Thomas, CAR
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
76. Tommy Tremble, CAR
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
77. Johnny Mundt, MIN
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
78. Matt Bushman, KC
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
79. Darnell Washington, PIT
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
80. Tre’ McKitty, LAC
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
81. Marcedes Lewis, CHI
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
82. Davis Allen, LAR
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
83. Drew Sample, CIN
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
84. Charlie Woerner, SF
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
85. MyCole Pruitt, ATL
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
86. Ross Dwelley, SF
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
87. Mitchell Wilcox, CIN
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
88. Jesper Horsted, LV
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
89. Jeremy Ruckert, NYJ
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
90. Brenton Strange, JAC
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
91. Chris Manhertz, DEN
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
92. Geoff Swaim, ARI
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
93. Quintin Morris, BUF
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
94. Tucker Kraft, GB
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
95. Grant Calcaterra, PHI
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
96. Josh Whyle, TEN
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
97. James Mitchell, DET
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
98. Parker Hesse, ATL
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
99. Luke Farrell, JAC
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
100. Nate Adkins, DEN
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
101. Jack Stoll, PHI
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
102. Tyler Kroft, MIA
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
