Matthew Berry’s Love/Hate for Week 11

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Kevin Negandhi understood the assignment.

We’ve been friends for a long time, and in fact, our offices are right next to each other. So recently I popped in and asked him a quick question.

“Hey, so every year for my column, I do this bit where I ask someone to interview me. I’ve done it with Michelle Beadle, Jeremy Schaap, Mina Kimes, a group one featuring a bunch of ESPN folks, and this year I’d love for you to do it. You can ask me whatever you want — funny, serious, whatever — any subject and I’ll answer in my column. Would you be willing to do it?”

Kevin, of course, has interviewed tons of people over the years on SportsCenter and as a big part of our college football coverage. He’s among the best broadcasters we have here at ESPN and is also the nicest human on the planet, so it was no surprise Kevin quickly said yes.

As I said, Kevin understood the assignment. Here we go: the 2021 edition of the TMR FAQ.

Kevin: Heard real estate around your office has skyrocketed with the new neighbor moving in next door. … Disappointed that you didn’t bring a housewarming gift, but please keep the noise down over there. How many interviews do you do a day?

Me: Wait, you mean asking you to do this interview isn’t a good office-warming present? Huh. OK. Well, when you invite me to an office-warming party, I’ll bring something. In the meantime, this just shows our fans how incredibly kind you are. I NEVER hear you, so I assumed the walls were thick enough that you couldn’t hear me. Apparently you can, but of course you never said anything. I’ll try to keep it down.

But yeah, one of the results of living in a COVID-19 world is that I can’t remember the last in-person meeting I had. The content from Love/Hate informs a lot of other shows and things I do, so there are two meetings about this column alone plus calls with producers for the daily Fantasy Focus podcast, The Fantasy Show on ESPN+ and Fantasy Football Now. I also have a bunch of random meetings with bosses and advertisers, and then there’s life stuff like doctors or parent-teacher conferences. I feel like my life is spent on Zoom. So the answer to your question is A LOT. During football season I basically work seven days a week, but I have a much lighter schedule in the offseason, so the good news is it’ll calm down in January. But until then, I think I just came up with the perfect office-warming gift. What size ear muffs do you wear?

Kevin: I know you have kids relatively close to the age of our oldest. Big debate in our house, so no pressure, but we’re counting on you. At what age do you allow your kids to have a cellphone?

Me: I don’t know what the proper answer is; I just know that I’m sure it’s wrong. I struggle so much with how best to raise my kids in a digital world. My daughters just turned 10, and one has a phone and one has an iPad she uses. To be honest, we struggled with this one a lot. The challenge for us was weighing safety and giving them too much online freedom at a young age with the fact that all of their friends have them. While I’m not a believer in keeping up with the Joneses, I also think it’s important for young children not to feel ostracized or left out of their friend group for something that is solvable. My daughters’ friends all play Roblox, and it’s a way they connect and interact with their friends, talking through that game with one another while they play.

What put us over the edge was the pandemic and the girls stuck at home with no interaction with their peer group. We thought that being able to connect with their friends, somehow, someway, was more important than any fears we had. So we caved. They have daily screen limits and parental controls on everything, and my wife and I both know their passcodes and we make sure they have activities (currently both do dance, one plays soccer and the other is on a gymnastics competition team), but yeah, I have no idea what is right on any of this stuff. I’m just trying to muddle my way through as a parent as best I can.

Kevin: As a commissioner of an ESPN fantasy league, I deal with a scoring issue every now and then, maybe a controversial trade, but most of the time it’s been smooth for over a decade. But there’s always that one owner who never pays on time, that you have to chase his entry fee all season and he is beyond obnoxious — and everyone wants that guy out of the league, but I keep him on board. I’m curious: What’s the worst commissioner story you can share in print? (You can tell me the real one in person, neighbor.)

Me: Oh man, I’ve heard so many over the years, but I think the worst story I’ve ever heard I actually put in my book, “Fantasy Life.” A guy I called “Travis” (I changed his name) thinks he has won a playoff game by a half-point, as his running back got 100 yards and he got a one-point 100-yard bonus. Two days later, a stat correction comes out and the RB’s yardage total is changed to 99. No bonus, Travis loses by a half-point.

But he’s the commish, so he goes in that night and changes his league’s scoring so that he, Travis, remains the winner, hoping no one would notice. Pretty bad, right? But here’s what makes it the worst to me.

Travis is a pastor. And he runs a league of pastors from his church (a big church in Oklahoma) and surrounding churches in his town. Eventually the guilt gets so bad for him, he comes clean to his leaguemates and, eventually, to me for my book.

By the way, he no longer runs that league, and he actually moved to a new church in another state soon after that, he felt such shame. But still. When a commish who is also a man of the cloth cheats … that’s hard to top.

Kevin: Aren’t you in like 10 leagues? How do you manage who is where and which team deserves more of your attention? Do you draft the same guys for multiple teams?

Me: It’s 16 leagues, actually, but who’s counting? I also help out a few celebrities/athletes/VIPs, so I have to keep track of their teams on some level too, which means the real number is closer to like 24. Every year I try to pare the number down, but it never works out. Doing waivers every week legit takes me multiple hours. But it’s mostly a putting-out-fires kind of thing. I pay attention to the teams that need it most. Like, I will ignore teams for a while, just making sure I have a set lineup, but if I notice a team has lost a few in a row or something, then I focus and am like, “OK, what do I need to do here?” Then I’ll start looking for trades or ways to improve that team. There are definitely leagues I care about more than others, but in general, my attention goes to the teams that need it most at any given moment.

I try to diversify some, but I just draft by my rankings. Sometimes I am an outlier on a player — this year I was significantly higher than everyone else on Austin Ekeler, my fantasy ride or die, so I have a ton of Ekeler because I was willing to draft him much earlier than anyone else. So because of that, I wind up with a decent amount of overlap of players.

Because we reach so many people on ESPN, playing in a bunch of leagues with different formats, league sizes and rules helps me with analysis, so I consider it a big part of my job. Thank goodness for the ESPN Fantasy app so I can do everything on the go.

Kevin: Big test here on your fandom: Do you root for your fantasy player if he scores against your own team, Washington? How do you approach this conflict?

Me: Luckily for me, everyone scores against my Washington Football Team, so it’s not really a conflict. Jokes aside, being in so many leagues means that almost every player who scores in any game is likely on one of my teams somewhere and playing against me somewhere else. So my rooting order is: I root for Washington in the NFL first and foremost, then I root for my picks. Like, I have Joe Burrow listed as a “love” below. I’ll root for him to crush this week and vindicate my faith in him even though he’s on my opponents’ teams in every league. Then I root for whichever fantasy team of mine might need a win that week or if I am playing a good friend or big rival.

Kevin: I’m a big Marvel fan, so your appearance in “Endgame” is probably the reason you’re at the top of the Negandhi Christmas party list when it comes to invites. How many takes did that scene require? And which person on the set asked you the most fantasy football questions? I need to know if Robert Downey Jr. qualifies to get an invitation (although my wife would divorce me on the spot the minute he walks in).

Me: Asking me about “Endgame” might be the quickest way to my heart, so I definitely made the right choice in asking you to do this. (Spoiler alert here for anyone who hasn’t seen it yet.) The scene I am in took two days to film. There’s a lot going on in that scene, and there’s also a bunch of special effects and CGI, as that scene also includes the Hulk crashing through a wall and tiny Ant-Man crawling through Tony’s shirt, plus there are also two Tonys in that scene, with present-day Tony Stark watching 2012 Tony Stark. So we had to shoot the scene from a lot of different angles, including from “each” Tony’s point of view. I think we did about seven takes of that scene in each camera position, but it really took only one or two times to nail it. The rest were just the cast trying some different jokes or slightly different actions just to give the Russo brothers choices.

I spoke the most fantasy football on set with Joe Russo, who is a hard-core fantasy player and the reason I am in the movie. You can read more about how I got in the movie and the experience here, but there was a fantasy football league among the crew, and they all wore their jerseys on the second day of filming for me. So I talked with them a lot too; they were all so great. Of the cast members, I probably talked fantasy the most with Robert Downey Jr. and his right-hand man, the late, great Jimmy Rich, who was a die-hard Pittsburgh Steelers fan.

Thanks again to Kevin for playing along with my dumb premise and to Damian Dabrowski for his help at various other points in this column. Let’s get to it.

Quarterbacks I love in Week 11

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (at Bears)

The last two weeks in the NFL have been so ridiculous with so many odd results that Baltimore’s Thursday night loss to the Dolphins last week feels like ancient history. Remember how bad Jackson looked in that game? Completely flustered, no ability to adjust to the blitz-heavy nature of Miami, he was under siege all night. And yet, he still somehow scored 15.6 fantasy points. And since that game against a Miami team that blitzes at the highest rate in the league — and blitzed him 52% of the time in that game — Jackson has had 10 days to prepare for a Bears team with the second-lowest blitz rate on the season. Over the past four weeks, the Bears have allowed a league-high 22.8 PPG to opposing quarterbacks. Last Thursday was an ugly game on national TV, so some people might be worried, but not only do I expect Jackson to bounce back in a big way but he’s my No. 1 QB for the week.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (vs. Texans)

Tannehill has a rushing touchdown in four of his past five games and the same number of goal-to-go carries on the season as Lamar Jackson. So it seems Tennessee’s Derrick Henry replacement was … Ryan Tannehill? Who knew? We need him to start throwing passes to himself now to replace Julio Jones, too. But honestly, regardless of which player Tannehill throws to on Sunday, he should put up nice numbers against a Texans team allowing the third-most yards per pass attempt, the third-most yards per completion and the seventh-highest touchdown rate. Tannehill has at least 18 points in three of his past four games, and he’s a top-10 play for me in Week 11.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Raiders)

The Raiders found out the hard way Sunday night that Patrick Mahomes is still good at throwing footballs. But he’s not the only quarterback who has thrown footballs well against the Raiders lately. Over the past four weeks, Vegas is allowing touchdown passes at the second-highest rate. After a slow start where Cincy ran the ball and protected Burrow, the Bengals have been aggressive in letting him throw lately, with more than 250 passing yards in six straight. Considering Burrow has multiple touchdown passes in eight of nine games this season and the third-highest touchdown rate among qualified quarterbacks this season, there’s every reason to expect he’ll have the biggest day for a Bengal in Vegas since Siegfried & Roy.

Others receiving votes: Derek Carr has at least 18 fantasy points in three of his past four games, while the Bengals are allowing 22.6 PPG to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks. … This just in: Fields is getting better! I think I missed my calling as an old-timey radio announcer. Anyway, Justin Fields averaged 21.7 fantasy points and 74.0 rushing yards in his two games before Chicago’s bye. Meanwhile, the Ravens are allowing 22.4 PPG to opposing quarterbacks over the past four weeks. … Look, I don’t expect Mac Jones to complete 82% of his passes in a game in which the Patriots score 40-plus every week. But man, does he look good and more importantly, this week Jones gets a Falcons defense that is bottom five in quarterback completion rate (69%), touchdown passes allowed and PPG surrendered to opposing quarterbacks. You could do worse than Jones if you’re looking for a Matthew Stafford replacement this week.

Quarterbacks I hate in Week 11

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Cardinals)

Last week, Wilson showed that coming off of finger surgery, he is, in fact, Mr. Limited. Did you know that in the five full games Wilson has played this season, he’s averaging just 29.8 pass attempts, 25th among qualified quarterbacks? And that this week Pete Carroll said he wants to run the ball … More? #notgood. The Seahawks currently rank dead last in offensive plays per game, and on top of that, Wilson’s Week 11 opponent allows just 14.9 PPG to quarterbacks this season, fourth-fewest in the league. I’m hesitant on Wilson’s fantasy prospects until I see that he’s all the way back from his injury. You can let Russ cook this week if you want. Just know that you might get food poisoning. I have him outside my top 12 for the week.

Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts (at Bills)

Before Wentz’s 7.1 fantasy point stinkfest against the Jaguars last week, he had put up six consecutive games with at least 17 fantasy points. So which guy is he? The 17-point-a-week guy or the guy who struggled vs. Jacksonville? Honestly, this week I think he’s closer to the guy who struggled against the Jags. If he can’t do it against Jacksonville, I’m worried about him against a Buffalo pass defense that is top three in yards per pass attempt, touchdown rate and pressure rate. Only two quarterbacks have scored more than 15.5 fantasy points against the Bills this season, and I’m not liking Wentz’s chances at making it three.

Running backs I love in Week 11

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Steelers)

OK, so while everyone has been panicking about inconsistent and underperforming Mike Williams and Justin Herbert, Ekeler has come back to earth as well, as he’s just RB14 since Week 6 on a PPG basis. But I am here to tell you I continue to ride with my “ride or die,” as I have Ekeler as my No. 2 RB this week. Look, the Pittsburgh Steelers got gouged at home last week by the Detroit Lions. And I have uncovered that, thanks to some top-secret, proprietary analytics that you could never possibly understand, the Chargers are better than the Lions. You’re welcome. And by the way, despite the perception of the Steelers’ defense, Pittsburgh is actually quite dreadful against the run. Over past four weeks, Pittsburgh is allowing a league-high 130.3 rushing yards per game to running backs, as well as 5.1 YPC to backs during that stretch. If T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden are all out on Sunday, do you think the Steelers’ defense will be better or worse? The answer is — thanks once again to my secret analytics — likely worse. My “ride or die” rides again.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (at Vikings)

The reason for #FreeAaronJones was simple. Jones is good and deserves more work. But perhaps the reason it continues to fail is Dillon is also good and the Packers didn’t want to overwork Jones because they didn’t want him to get hurt. Welp. That plan didn’t work, so with Jones now out because of injury, Dillon is officially free and is locked in as a top-10 back. In the six career games in which he has had at least 12 touches, he has at least 75 scrimmage yards in all of them. And in his two career games with at least 20 touches, he has averaged 26.3 fantasy PPG. Dillon also has a good matchup this week against a Vikings defense allowing 101.4 rushing yards per game to running backs on the season. So now the hashtags are #GetHealthyAaronJones and #StartAJDillon.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (at Raiders)

As good as Vegas is as a host for bachelor/bachelorette parties, it’s an even better host for opposing running backs. The Raiders have allowed at least 19 fantasy points to every backfield they’ve faced. Now they take on a rested Mixon off a bye. The same Mixon who has handled 72% of the Cincinnati running back touches this season. The same Mixon who has 25-plus points in three of his past four games. So order another couple of bottles and tell them you’re going to need a late checkout. The party for Mixon fantasy managers isn’t ending anytime soon.

Others receiving votes: The Bears didn’t ease David Montgomery back into action in his last game. He played 85% of the snaps and saw 15 of 19 running back touches. As the Bears’ offense improves along with Justin Fields, I like Montgomery in a game he’s had two weeks to prepare for. The Ravens’ defense coughs up running back touchdowns at the third-highest rate. … Apparently the Dolphins like Myles Gaskin again. He now has at least 15 touches in four straight games. They are not always productive touches, but they are touches. And that kind of usage sets up well against a Jets defense that allows the most fantasy points to running backs and has given up a running back touchdown in eight consecutive games. … Clyde Edwards-Helaire might be back in action this week, but I don’t care and I’m betting the Chiefs don’t, either. Darrel Williams has been much more effective this season than CEH ever has been and in the five games Williams and CEH have played together, they have the same number of red zone carries, while Williams has a 3-to-1 edge in goal-to-go carries. Williams also averages 26% more fantasy points per touch than CEH this season. In a high-scoring game, give me Williams as a viable flex play … While we expect Damien Harris to play on Thursday night, I still think Rhamondre Stevenson is a viable flex play. You just don’t ignore the production he had against the Browns last week (24 touches, 105 scrimmage yards, a touchdown). Those touches were the most by a Patriots back since Week 3 of 2020. Stevenson is much more involved in the passing game than Harris is and it’s worth noting, in the past three games in which both Harris and Stevenson were active, Stevenson put up at least 12 fantasy points in two of them. … D’Onta Foreman isn’t a future first ballot Hall of Famer like Adrian Peterson, but he’s worked his way up to first-string running back in Tennessee, leading the Titans’ backfield in snaps, touches and yards last week. He also saw three of the team’s four red zone carries. That workload — along with Jeremy McNichols potentially missing this game while in the concussion protocol — bodes well against a Texans defense allowing the highest yards per carry and the second-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.

Running backs I hate in Week 11

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (at Buccaneers)

Welcome back, Saquon Barkley. We missed you. Now go play a Bucs defense that gives up just 57.7 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, second-fewest in the league. The Bucs defense is also top five in yards allowed before and after first contact. Oh, and they give up just 6.9 yards per reception to backs, too, seventh fewest in the league. A week after they got upset by the Washington Football Team, think they’re mad? Yeah, me too. As welcome back parties go, this matchup is not ideal. Barkley managers better hope there’s at least an open bar. I have Barkley just outside my top 15 this week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Cowboys)

CEH may be cleared for Sunday, but he still might be DOA when it comes to fantasy. I could leave my insights there with that brutal acronym smackdown, but I’m in a giving mood today. So I will also tell you that CEH doesn’t have a single touch gaining more than 17 yards this season. He also has zero rushing TDs in his last eight regular-season games, despite 106 carries in that span. He also received just one goal-line carry in his five games prior to injury. Also, as I mentioned above, while CEH was out, Darrel Williams was better than CEH ever was. So yeah, CEH is a BHFM (Big Hate For Me) this week. But go ahead and play him if you’d like. YOLO. (Do people still use that one? No? Dang it.)

Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills (vs. Colts)

The Colts allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and have yielded only three rushing touchdowns to running backs all season. So once again I go to my highly proprietary and extremely complicated analytics that you couldn’t possibly comprehend to tell you that that is, as we say in the analytics industry, “not good.” And this is probably worse: since Week 5, Moss doesn’t have a game with more than eight carries. When you’re worried whether or not Matt Breida will get more work as it relates to your running back, that should be your clue to start making other plans.

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team (at Panthers)

In one of the most surprising victories in modern WFT history on Sunday over Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champs, Washington also lost Chase Young to an ACL tear. The lesson being: God hates me and my favorite team. But Washington DID look better on Sunday, so much so that I expect them to keep it close with the Panthers. And if they pull that off, that means McKissic will be off the field a lot more than usual, limiting his ceiling. By the way, if you take away the Kansas City game, in which McKissic had 16 touches, he’s averaging only 6.9 touches per game. Still not convinced? Well, I have no shortage of troubling stats when it comes to my favorite team: Carolina allows the fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.

Pass-catchers I love in Week 11

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (vs. Texans)

You already know I like Ryan Tannehill this week. And you know who Tannehill likes? A.J. Brown. Prior to last week, Brown had five straight games with a target share above 30%. Therefore and heretofore, by the transitive property, ergo, postulate 11 states that wide receivers who have seen six-plus targets versus Houston this season are averaging 17.5 PPG. Also, over the past four weeks, Houston ranks bottom five in receptions and yards allowed per game to opposing wide receivers, so Brown, who averaged 27.0 PPG in his two meetings with the Texans last season, will be liked by fantasy managers who start him this week, ipso facto, a priori, carpe diem.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at Titans)

A Houston Texan on the Love list? What could possibly go wrong?! I can think of at least 30 things. Hey, speaking of the completely arbitrary number 30, the Titans have allowed at least 30 points to wide receivers in all but one game this season. (Wow, was that a flawless and not-at-all-forced segue or what?) Yes, I know the Titans have played a lot better defense recently, but whether it’s junk time or not, nine receivers have scored at least 20 points against Tennessee this season. Cooks and Tyrod Taylor also have a bit of positive history together. Cooks is averaging 17.5 PPG with Taylor at quarterback this season, earning an average of 11.7 targets in those games. Off the bye and in a game in which the Texans are double-digit underdogs, I like Cooks’ chances at a top-20 day.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (at Raiders)

Cincinnati may not have much going for it in the culinary world — for the record, Cincinnati wet noodle chili is an affront to all that is holy and edible — but it more than makes up for it in the wide receiver department. While Ja’Marr Chase gets all the hype, Higgins has at least 100 air yards and an end zone target in three straight games. And over the past four games, wide receivers facing the Raiders are averaging the third-most air yards per target. The Raiders are also allowing 1.5 touchdowns per game to receivers over that stretch, tied for the most in the NFL. That’s almost as bad as Cincinnati chili.

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Chargers)

Freiermuth has six-plus targets in four straight games. That includes last week when Eric Ebron returned from injury and Mason Rudolph played … I want to say … quarterback? Sure, let’s go with that. Anyway, the Chargers allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position and five tight ends have already scored at least 15 fantasy points against them this season. The rookie is a top-eight tight end for this week.

Others receiving votes: Rashod Bateman was late to the 2021 season, but he has very much arrived with at least six targets in every game he’s played this season. The Ravens rookie could be in line for a true breakout game this week against a Bears defense that, over the past four weeks, ranks bottom five in both yards and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. … Speaking of the Bears, Darnell Mooney has at least 12 fantasy points in three of his past four games and a team-high 23% target share over that stretch. Meanwhile, Baltimore has allowed 40 receptions of 20-plus yards this season, tied for third-most in the league. (Insert Spider-Man meme of Bateman and Mooney pointing at each other.) … Cole Beasley is slowed by a rib injury, while Emmanuel Sanders is averaging 14.4 PPG in his seven games this season with at least five targets. Sanders also gets to work against a Colts defense that has allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers this season. I say he bounces back from last week for a strong game this week. … The Eagles allow the most fantasy points per game to tight ends, while Adam Trautman of the Saints has at least six targets in three straight games. … If Dallas Goedert is out this week, you may want to stream former University of Buffalo quarterback Tyree Jackson. Yeah, that’s a sentence I just wrote. Philadelphia ranks eighth in target share this season and seventh in red zone target share to tight ends.

Pass-catchers I hate in Week 11

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Giants)

Evans has long been a boom-or-bust receiver. For example, in three of his past four games, he has exactly four targets and two catches. But it is definitely a risk to put him on the Hate list because … well, he’s Mike Evans. But against a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per deep completion this season? A game in which Evans will get the James Bradberry shadow? It feels like this is a Chris Godwin game. You’re still starting Evans, but I have him outside my top 15, as he’s far more likely to bust than boom in Week 11.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (at Bills)

A big problem in our society is how we put people on pedestals and then just try to knock them right off. Anyway … so you know how fantasy analysts like myself have been working to get Pittman recognized as a set-it-and-forget-it wide receiver? And, of late, fantasy managers have finally realized that he is? Well, I think Pittman might kind of stink this week. Yeah, sorry. But Pittman has only one game with more than six targets since Week 5 and the Bills are first in the league against wide receivers this season in … well, you pretty much name the category. It’s why no wide receiver — including Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Diontae Johnson and Terry McLaurin — has reached 17 fantasy points in a game against the Bills this season. I have Pittman outside my top 20 for the week.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Patriots)

If you think Bill Belichick is good at shutting down rookie quarterbacks, he’s even better against rookie tight ends. Not a single rookie tight end has ever thrown a touchdown pass against his teams. Wow! But all lame jokes aside, Belichick will probably look to limit Pitts’ effectiveness, especially if Cordarrelle Patterson is out or even limited. The Patriots have allowed only two tight ends to get at least three receptions against them this season. And Pitts, as good as he is, has finished better than TE12 just three times in 2021, with 47.1% of his fantasy points coming in just two games. Given the lack of depth at the position I still have him as a starter, but I have Pitts at TE8 this week, the lowest I’ve listed him all season.

Source: ESPN


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